Paid Content UK ran a survey asking people about the paywall that the Times of London will soon have. They have posted the results of the survey, and I'm intrigued. They found that 23% of respondents were somewhat likely (13%) to very likely (4%) to pay for access. Paid Content is a lot more optimistic about the results that I am.
My first concern is that there was no option for undecided. Surely at least some of the respondents haven't actually considered this; now we don't know who they are. My guess is they're in the 23%, but we don't know for sure.
My other issue with the data is that it does not cover all of Times Online's audience. Two thirds of Times Online's audience is outside the UK (according to Alexa). I'm not going to speculate on who will and won't pay, because we don't really know. BTW, about 20% of users find the site through a search engine (also according to Alexa). How many of that 20% are going to pay to read the story instead of clicking the back button?