This blog has a policy of avoiding the more speculative of the unsubstantiated rumors, so today I would like to take a different approach to the latest Apple gossip.
Reuters has posted an article that looks to be the classic Spring rumor about Apple:
Apple Inc suppliers will begin mass producing displays as early as May for the next iPhone, expected to be launched this autumn, with a 4.7-inch screen likely to be produced first while a 5.5-inch version could be delayed, supply chain sources said.
Japan Display Inc, Sharp Corp and South Korea’s LG Display Co Ltd have all been tapped to make the screens, said the sources, who asked not to be identified.
One thing I’ve noticed over the past 4 years is that Apple gossip tends to run in seasons, with rumors of products launching more than 6 months away tending to be the least accurate (in this case, an autumn launch of a larger iPhone).
For example, it was around this time last year that rumors circulated concerning a cheaper plastic iPhone intended for the emerging markets. And in October the latest Apple gossip said that the iPhone 6 would , which (based on the lack of hardware leaks) doesn’t appear to be happening.
On a related note, both of those rumors were originally reported by analysts, which does not speak well of that profession’s ability to make accurate predictions.
Sure, the plastic iPhone 5C launched in Fall 2013, but it wasn’t cheap. And I can also recall reading in January of last year that the larger iPhone 6 was supposed to launch last Summer; that didn’t happen. (And don’t even get me started on the iWatch.)
My point, folks, is that Apple gossip with a 6 month or longer expiration date is notoriously inaccurate. I think we would have a better chance of being right if we simply invert the rumor and assume that there won’t be a launch, or that there won’t be a device.
I have been looking at older Apple rumors over the past week and so far that rule of thumb has been holding up quite well. Would anyone care to bet whether the iPhone 6 rumors will fit the same pattern?