Update: A couple people (@draccah and @nicboshart) have pointed out the flaw in this post. The sales figures we're looking at here are only from the major publishers; the independents and the self-published aren't included.
We just got the June ebook sales figures (via E-reads) yesterday so I'm going to revisit the predictions I made last month. I don't know total reported sales, but I do know that $29.8m worth of ebooks were sold, which is less than a 5% increase over the previous month. Here are the reported ebook sales for June through January:
Ebooks sales: 29.8 29.3 27.4 28.5 28.9 31.9
And here are the predictions I made:
One, I think ebook sales are largely flat so far this year. This prediction has obviously remained true.
Two, iBooks didn’t boost sales at all. This one's still good. Then again, are book app sales included in these figures? We could be missing growth that's either not reported or not expressed.
Three, ebook sales don’t seem to be affected by the same market pressures as other book sales. I can't answer this one without the total sales figures.
Four, I don’t think ebook sales will grow on their own at quite the same spectacular rate as last year. Yep.
So when it comes to market predictions I'm 3 for 4. That's not bad.
P.S. If you haven't seen them before, you might want to read the last 2 predictions. I'll reprint them here.
Three, ebook sales don’t seem to be affected by the same market pressures as other book sales. I think it would be useful if we could compare ebook sales with that of other digital media. I bet we’d see similar behavior.
Four, I don’t think ebook sales will grow on their own at quite the same spectacular rate as last year. Instead, I think market growth will be directly related to the publicity surrounding new ereader announcements. (The big January sales might have been caused by the Nook.)