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Nate Hoffelder

Nate Hoffelder

GfK: More eBooks Sold to Fewer Buyers in Germany in 2017

The German book trade group Boersenverein just released the latest consumer market survey it conducted in partnership with GfK Entertainment.

The report shows that fewer customers bought more but cheaper ebooks in the German market in 2017. An increase in volume was offset by a decline in sales price.

The high points of the consumer survey include:

  • A stagnating share of book sales in the public market:  The share of ebooks remained at the previous year’s level at 4.6%.
  • More titles sold:  eBook sales in the consumer market rose by 1 million units to 29.1 million units, an increase of 3.9%.
  • Fewer book buyers : An estimated 3.5 million customers bought at least one ebook in 2017, compared to 3.8 million in the same period of the previous year, a decrease of 7.7%.
  • Each buyer bought more copies:  Those who did buy ebooks bought an average of 8.3 copies, an increase of 12.6% over the same period of the previous year.
  • The average price declined: The average ebook price recorded by the survey fell by 5.1% from 2016 to 2017, to 6.38 euros.

"The ebook continues to gain in importance among its users as they intensify their purchases and expenses. However, the competition for time and attention of the people does not stop at this edition form. For the second year in a row, the e-book has seen buyer drops. The industry is currently intensively analyzing the reasons and motives of shoppers," said Börsenverein head Heinrich Riethmüller.

Buch Report

image by Retinafunk

Amazon’s Createspace Now Home to Money Laundering Operation

The Kindle Store is rife with scammers who publish spam ebooks and cheat their way to the top of the best-seller lists, and apparently Createspace has its own problems.

Brian Krebs brings our attention to what was most likely some type of money laundering scam being run in Amazon’s print-on-demand service:

Patrick Reames had no idea why Amazon.com sent him a 1099 form saying he’d made almost $24,000 selling books via Createspace, the company’s on-demand publishing arm. That is, until he searched the site for his name and discovered someone has been using it to peddle a $555 book that’s full of nothing but gibberish.

Reames is a credited author on Amazon by way of several commodity industry books, although none of them made anywhere near the amount Amazon is reporting to the Internal Revenue Service. Nor does he have a personal account with Createspace.

But that didn’t stop someone from publishing a “novel” under his name. That word is in quotations because the publication appears to be little more than computer-generated text, almost like the gibberish one might find in a spam email.

The impersonator priced the book at $555 and it was posted to multiple Amazon sites in different countries. The book — which as been removed from most Amazon country pages as of a few days ago — is titled “Lower Days Ahead,” and was published on Oct 7, 2017.

Reames said he suspects someone has been buying the book using stolen credit and/or debit cards, and pocketing the 60 percent that Amazon gives to authors. At $555 a pop, it would only take approximately 70 sales over three months to rack up the earnings that Amazon said he made.

That is a tidy little scam; if not for the fact that Amazon sent the 1099 to the wrong person, we would never have even heard about it.

And clearly Amazon had no idea it was going on.

Reames told Krebs on Security that after learning of the scam, he got curious enough to start looking for other examples. “I have reviewed numerous Createspace titles and its clear to me that there may be hundreds if not thousands of similar fraudulent books on their site,” Reames said. “These books contain no real content, only dozens of pages of gibberish or computer generated text.”

When I reported on a massive piracy scam going on in Createspace back in 2015, Amazon refused to say whether they were going to take any steps to prevent the scam from happening again.

In 2015 I found hundreds of titles which combined pirated content with sound-alike titles in a fraud intended to trick students into buying the wrong textbook.

It is now 2018, and Createspace is still rife with obviously scammy titles (and as we know from David Gaughran’s work, the Kindle Store is almost as bad).

And apparently the best Amazon can do is clean up the mess after someone else points it out.

Sentiment Analysis Could One Day Tell Authors How Readers Feel About a Story

There are ebook analytics startups like Jellybooks that can tell publishers how members of a focus group are using an ebook – which pages are the most popular, how far each test subject got before dropping the book, etc.

But one thing these startups can’t do just yet is tell publishers how a reader feels about a book. Sure, they can survey readers, but that doesn’t always result in truthful answers.

But sentiment analysis might.

According to Wikipedia, sentiment analysis "refers to the use of natural language processing, text analysis, computational linguistics, and biometrics to systematically identify, extract, quantify, and study affective states and subjective information".

A simpler way to put it would be that sentiment analysis is when someone uses software to identify the emotional subtext in a text, image, or video. For example, Facebook regularly uses sentiment analysis to understand and filter your updates.

The part I want to bring to your attention is how someone might use a camera to watch faces, and then use sentiment analysis software to understand what people are feeling.

A story on the topic crossed my desk today. IHE reports on one such effort to use sentiment analysis in the classroom and track students' engagement levels.

How’s everyone doing so far? Am I being clear? Anyone confused?

Professors might ask these questions midway through a lecture to get a sense of students’ moods. The scattered answers often aren’t very helpful, if they’re even accurate.

With sentiment analysis software, set for trial use later this semester in a classroom at the University of St. Thomas, in Minnesota, instructors don’t need to ask. Instead, they can glance at their computer screen at a particular point or stretch of time in the session and observe an aggregate of the emotions students are displaying on their faces: happiness, anger, contempt, disgust, fear, neutrality, sadness and surprise.

The project team hopes the software will help instructors tailor their teaching approaches to levels of student interest, and to address areas of concern, confusion and apathy from students. If most students drift into negative emotions midway through the session, an instructor could enliven that section with an active assignment. If half the students are happy and the other half aren’t, the latter group might be getting left behind.

Consider for a moment how it might help publishers and authors understand readers.

The camera on a reader’s smartphone or tablet could track the reader’s face, taking a photo every few seconds. Those photos would then be sent to the publisher’s servers where sentiment analysis software could identify, for example, which sections of a book were the most exciting.

Yes, that is creepy, but it could still be useful for publishers who want to know whether a story hit the right emotional buttons.

So what are the chances that someone might use this?

I asked  Jellybooks founder and CEO Andrew Rhomberg what he thought about using this software, and he told me that "I think that would be way too spooky even for a typical test reader," adding that he didn’t plan to implement this because "there is so much other lower-hanging fruit (in publishing) we can and should solve with technology first."

That is reassuring to hear, but we should not be complacent on this issue. The best way to stop anyone from using sentiment analysis on readers is to object to its use the first time it is proposed, which is why I brought this to your attention today.

There will come a day where some tech startup will offer a service that can track readers' emotional responses, and it will be on authors and publishers to say "not with my books".

What do you think of sentiment analysis? Can you see an upside, or is this pure creepy overreach?

Updated: eBooks are a Stupid Product, and Other Blinkered Ramblings

Lagardère Publishing CEO Arnaud Nourry gave an interview to Scroll.in this weekend that showed both that he was remarkably ignorant about his products as well as how and why consumers value his products.

FYI: Lagardère is the parent company for Hachette Book Group (US) and Hachette (UK), and Hachette Livre (France).

The interview also showed that his PR staff needs to be fired (Nourry should never have been allowed to say this).

It’s been a little over ten years since ebooks came to the market in the form of Kindle. You mentioned a small decline – do you think the market has plateaued? Are there formats other than ebooks that publishers should be looking at?

There are two different geographies to look at for this. In the US and UK, the ebook market is about 20% of the total book market, everywhere else it is 5%-7% because in these places the prices never went down to such a level that the ebook market would get significant traction. I think the plateau, or rather slight decline, that we’re seeing in the US and UK is not going to reverse. It’s the limit of the ebook format. The ebook is a stupid product. It is exactly the same as print, except it’s electronic. There is no creativity, no enhancement, no real digital experience. We, as publishers, have not done a great job going digital. We’ve tried. We’ve tried enhanced or enriched ebooks – didn’t work. We’ve tried apps, websites with our content – we have one or two successes among a hundred failures. I’m talking about the entire industry. We’ve not done very well.

I’m convinced there is something we can invent using our content and digital properties beyond ebooks but I reached the conclusion that we don’t really have the skills and talents in our companies because publishers and editors are accustomed to picking a manuscript and creating a design on a flat page. They don’t really know the full potential of 3-D and digital. So we acquired three video game companies in the last two years to attract talent from different industries and see how we can nurture one another and how we can go beyond the ebook on digital. We need to offer different experiences to our consumers.

One could bristle in reflexive annoyance over Nourry dissing ebooks, but the bigger story is what this says about Nourry.

Edit: I thought everyone knew this, but no, ebook sales have not plateaued. Hachette’s sales are low because Hachette keeps their ebook prices high. If you check the Author Earnings report, you will see that ebooks make up a significant part of the market. And it’s not just a tiny group of readers who like ebooks; almost all of romance has gone digital, as well as around half of the SF market.

This guy understands so little about ebooks that it is almost frightening.

Edit: When he calls ebooks stupid, what he really means they are dumb, as in the opposite of a smart product like an enhanced ebook. This is true, epubs are simple dumb files, but that is what consumers want (and Nourry won’t sell consumers what they want).

Basic market research will tell you why consumers like a product and how they use it, but if Hachette has access to that research then the info is not making its way to Nourry. As a result, he is blindly leading Hachette down multiple wrong paths.

They’ve tried enhanced ebooks, ebook apps, and even ebooks on websites, all because Nourry doesn’t understand ebooks as a product. And soon they will be trying video games.

Let me say that again so it sinks in.

The CEO of a major multi-national book publishing conglomerate does not understand his company’s products or his company’s markets.

This point is so mind-boggling because it is really not that hard to find out why consumers like ebooks: just go ask them.

Consumers like ebooks because we can change the font size. We like ebooks because we can carry a hundred ebooks on a smartphone. We also like being able to search the text, add notes that are can later be accessed from a web browser, and easily share those notes with other readers.

Edit: As Andrew Rhomberg pointed out on Twitter and a reader explained in the comment section of this post, readers like ebooks because they are the exact same stories we already read, only with a few extra minor improvements.

All of these opinions are both obvious and readily available from the nearest ebook fan – including the ones that work for Nourry.

What is especially weird about this story is not just the lack of understanding but also that one would think Nourry has staffers who use ebooks constantly, and yet he has never listened to them explain why they like ebooks.

And this is the CEO of a company with annual revenues around 2.2 billion euros, folks.

Nourry has been the CEO of Lagardère Publishing since 2003, which means that every decision he has made about ebooks in that time has been based on him not understanding the first thing about ebooks.

Do you know that stereotype about legacy publishing companies being dinosaurs that don’t understand the first thing about their business?

Nourry has just shown us that there is a lot of truth behind the stereotype.

Chew on that.

Japanese City Launches Smart Bus Stop Display Pilot Featuring E-ink Screens

Papercast is a startup that specializes in developing smart bus stop displays built around E-ink screens. This is the company that supplied the 32″ color E-ink displays used in Singapore’s mass transit stations, and in other cities like Tannheim and Jerusalem.

Now they have started a pilot in Aizuwakamatsu, a city in the Fukushima Prefecture in Japan.

The project is administered by Aizu Riding Car Development, a consortium initiated by Michinori Holdings, operator of the Aizuwakamatsu bus service, Aizu Bus. Michinori is working alongside Toppan Printing, KDDI Corporation, Hakuhodo and Weathernews Corporation.

The purpose of the consortium is to improve service convenience and reduce ongoing costs by digitally connecting bus stops. It will see the replacement of traditional paper signage with real-time passenger information on electronic displays. E-paper has been selected by the consortium as the preferred technology and by partnering with E Ink, Papercast’s solar powered, wireless bus stop display technology will be used.

The neat thing about Papercast’s signs is they are solar-powered and can show real-time information on the status of the transit system. They can be updated remotely through Papercast’s platform, keeping passengers informed on how long they will have to wait.

PocketBook 740 Relaunched as the InkPad 3

PocketBook has dashed the hopes of anyone who was hoping for a beautiful new InkPad model; instead this ereader maker has slapped the label on the 740.

Announced last month, the 740 features a 7.8″ Carta E-ink screen. It’s going to be a reasonably powerful ereader when it ships, but it is also missing one of the better features of the InkPad and InkPad 2: it is missing the page turn buttons to one side of the screen.

The new InkPad 3 runs Pocketbook’s own reading software on a dual-core 1GHz CPU with 1GB RAM 1GB RAM, 8GB internal storage, and a microSD card slot.

It does not have Bluetooth or speakers, so far as we know, but it does have Wifi, a headphone jack, and a smartcover. It can play MP3s, and it can convert text into speech.

The InkPad 3 has a 7.8″ Carta E-ink screen with a resolution of 300 ppi (1404 x 1872 pixels) and a capacitive touchscreen and a color-changing frontlight. Weighing only 210 grams, this ereader measures 195 x 136.5 mm and has a thickness of only 8 mm.

The InkPad 3 is already shipping in Russia as the Pocketbook 740, where it  costs 14999 rubles, or $266 USD.

That is only slightly more than the $249 price of the new Kindle Oasis, but the Oasis has something the InkPad 3 lacks: well-placed page turn buttons.

I didn’t criticize the 740 on this issue when it launched, but once Pocketbook decided the 740 was also the InkPad 3, that new label brought to mind the best features of the previous InkPad models, which featured a one-handed design with page turn buttons to one side of the screen.

While the new InkPad 3 is a good and powerful ereader, I for one wish the it had kept those page turn buttons. They would have driven me to spend my limited funds on an InkPad 3. It would have had the ebook formatting options I liked in a hardware design I loved.

Oh, well, maybe Kobo will hear my pleading and put out the ereader I want (a fellow can dream).

KU Per-Page Rate Falls as the Funding Pool Grew in January 2018

I have some good news and some bad news for authors today; while Amazon increased the funding pool for Kindle Unlimited last month, they also let the per-page rate fall by about 5%.

Amazon announced on its support forums on Thursday that the KU Funding pool was $20.9 million, an increase of $1 million from December 2017. Amazon also revealed to authors that the per-page royalty was 45 48 hundredths of a cent, a drop of 3 hundredths of a cent from the previous month.

  • US: $0.0045 (USD)
  • Germany: €0.0031 (EUR)
  • UK: £0.0034 (GBP)
  • Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy: €0.0044 (EUR)
  • Brazil: R$ 0.0108 (BRL)
  • Japan: 0.5519 (JPY)
  • India, Australia, Mexico, Canada: unknown

P.S. Here’s a list of the monthly funding pools. It does not include the bonuses paid out each month.

  • July 2014: $2.5 million (Kindle Unlimited launches early in the month)
  • August 2014: $4.7 million
  • September 2014: $5 million
  • October 2014: $5.5 million
  • November 2014: $6.5 million
  • December 2014: $7.25 million
  • January 2015 – $8.5 million
  • February 2015: $8 million
  • March 2015: $9.3 million
  • April 2015: $9.8 million
  • May 2015: $10.8 million
  • June 2015: $11.3 million
  • July 2015: $11.5 million
  • August 2015: $11.8 million
  • September 2015: $12 million
  • October 2015: $12.4 million
  • November 2015: $12.7 million
  • December 2015: $13.5 million
  • January 2016: $15 million
  • February 2016: $14 million
  • March 2016: $14.9 million
  • April 2016: $14.9 million
  • May 2016: $15.3 million
  • June 2016: $15.4 million
  • July 2016: $15.5 million
  • August 2016: $15.8 million
  • September 2016: $15.9 million
  • October 2016: $16.2 million
  • November 2016: $16.3 million
  • December 2016: $16.8 million
  • January 2017: : $17.8 million
  • February 2017: : $16.8 million
  • March 2017: $17.7 million
  • April 2017: $17.8 million
  • May 2017 :$17.9 million
  • June 2017: $18 million
  • July 2017: $19 million
  • August 2017: $19.4 million
  • September 2017: $19.5 million
  • October 2017: $19.7 million
  • November 2017: $19.8 million
  • December 2017: $19.9 million
  • January 2018: $20.9 million

Self-Publisher Bibel

image by freeimage4life

Bookstore Sales Fell 37% in the Last Decade

Here’s a bit of news that will put a damper on future stories about the revival of bookstores.

PW reported yesterday that preliminary estimates show sales at US bookstores fell last year:

A slump in the second half of 2017 led a decline in bookstore sales in 2017 compared to 2016. According to preliminary estimates released Wednesday morning by the U.S. Census Bureau, bookstore sales dropped 3.6% last year compared to 2016. Sales in 2017 were $10.73 billion, down from $11.14 billion in 2016.

After rising in the first part of 2017 over 2016, bookstore sales ended 2017 on a five-month losing streak, capped by a very soft December. Sales in the last month of 2017 were $1.18 billion compared to $1.29 billion in December 2016. The weak end to 2017 mirrors to some degree the experience of Barnes & Noble which reported a 6.4% decline in sales in the nine week period ended December 31, 2107 compared to the same period a year ago.

There are two details worth noting. The first is that these figures include everything a bookstore sells, and not just books.

The second detail is that bookstores sales have declined almost every year since 2007, when they totaled $17.2 billion.

Bookstore Sales 2006–2017 (in billions)

2006 $17.02
2007 $17.21
2008 $16.91
2016 $11.14
2017 $10.73
% Chnge 2007–10 37%

Another thing you should know is that these numbers are bullshit until they have been revised for at least the third time; look up the 2017 statistics in 6 months and you will get something completely different, and then it might change again when you look a year from now.

I spent Thursday morning looking at PW’s past coverage of bookstore sales, and found multiple conflicting stats for any given calendar year (it’s why I left the gap in the chart). The one consistency is that the sales stats are usually revised downwards, which means the sales figure for 2017 will end up being lower by several hundred million.

While a significant part of the drop in sales was Borders closing in 2011, PW did also note that sales fell every year aside from 2016. (Even the coloring book fad in 2015 didn’t help.)

Do you know what you call an industry that declines 2% to 3% every year for a decade?

One that is dying on the vine.

This will be hard to accept – some will point to things like the ABA gaining 74 new members last year as data that refutes my conclusion – but the simple fact is bookstores aren’t selling as many goods as they used to.

Indie bookstores will be able to pick up some sales when B&N goes, I don’t see any sign of this trend reversing.

Do you?

image by jlodder

19 Months, and Counting

After Circuit City cut its most expensive sales people in March 2007, the company lasted a mere 19 months and 13 days before filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and liquidating its remaining assets.

This does not bode well for B&N.

Yesterday Barnes & Noble shook the business world when they fired an unknown number of experienced employees. The initial report said B&N had fired "lead cashiers, digital leads, and other experienced workers", but what that report missed – and why this was worth bringing up a day later – was that B&N also fired nearly all of its receiving managers in what current and ex-employees are calling Bloody Monday.

I have heard from two independent sources, including:

When B&N fires a digital sales lead, it means they’ll sell fewer Nooks. This is no big deal given how B&N’s digital revenues have fallen since 2013.

When B&N fires a head cashier, it means you’re in for longer waits at the register.

But when B&N fires its receiving managers, it means that B&N won’t have the merchandise to sell you because the person who was responsible for making sure shelves get stocked does not work there any more.

To put it another way, the receiving manager is the one person after the store manager most capable of going out and opening (or taking over) a bookstore.

Barnes & Noble may boast that they are going to save $40 million annually, but that savings comes at the expense of the institutional knowledge required to run the store.

Last month Barnes & Noble reported that revenues for the 2017 holiday season fell 6.4% compared to the same period a year ago, to $953 million. Online sales dropped 4.5%, while same-store sales fell 6.4%.

That is how B&N performed when they had experienced managers running the show, but next year they won’t have these managers – in fact, B&N is going to have trouble finding any experienced managers to fill these roles.

We have a fairly healthy economy right now, and everyone from Walmart to Amazon is hiring. This means Barnes & Noble isn’t going to be able to find the experienced people they need to turn the company around.

Circuit City lasted 19 months after they fired their best sales people, but B&N won’t last nearly that long.

My over-under for B&N to announce bankruptcy proceedings is next January.

What is your take?

image by ursonate

How to Delete Your Twitter Timeline (and Why You Should)

It is a truth universally acknowledged that Twitter is a great place to share jokes and engage in debate, but it is also accepted that one’s Twitter timeline exists only to be weaponized by one’s enemies now that we live in an age where good will is dead and no one can conceive that the person they hate has a sense of humor.

As The Verge explains:

We live in an era when alt-right trolls and political operatives will spend hours scanning the online footprint of a smear campaign target, all with the purpose of dredging up past jokes and verbal faux pas to twist into context-less, career-costing hit jobs. Look at what happened to MSNBC contributor Sam Seder in December of last year, when prominent alt-right voices elevated a joke from 2009 into a fervor that cost him his broadcast gig. (MSNBC backpedaled shortly after.) This stuff happens all the time nowadays; the rulebook was codified during Gamergate and has since spread throughout the greater online culture war. Few people are professionally, financially, or mentally equipped to weather such a storm.

You might think no one will notice your jokes, or that they are so banal and obvious that no one could possibly misinterpret them, and you could be right.

But do you really want to take the chance?

The internet in 2018 is a capricious place, and mobs have formed for the most ridiculous reasons. Unless you want to set yourself up as a future target, you need to delete your Twitter timeline. (On the other hand, deleting your timeline might be held against you by someone who is bound and determined to twist your words and actions, so this could be a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don’t".)

At the very least it is a good way to erase your tweets about the stupid things your pets were doing a decade ago.

Here are the three steps you should follow to clear your Twitter timeline.

1. Pick a service

There are a number of services out there that can delete your tweets, including:

TweetDelete is easily the most popular tool. It works with almost everyone, and can easily remove all your past tweets in a single go. Another free service that works from a desktop app is Twitter Archive Eraser. This didn’t work for me, but it did clear out a friend’s timeline. TwitWipe is another free option, although it has obnoxious advertising and is harder to use.

When it comes to paid options,  TweetDeleter starts at $6 a month and lets you delete up to three thousand tweets per day. It will also let you auto-delete tweets after they reach a certain age. There’s also TweetEraser, which costs $7 for 30 days use. It supports importing Twitter archives, but it doesn’t support automatic deletion so if you want to delete tweets when they get too old then you’ll need to continue to pay for the service.

Any one of these options could work for you. Me, I went with TweetDelete. It scrubbed over 105 thousand tweets, but it didn’t remove all of the the photos and videos I tweeted which is great because I wanted to keep them anyway.

TweetDelete worked its magic in under an hour.  That is both good news and bad news in that I appreciate the promptness but also wish I had thought to download my Twitter archive first.

2. Archive your tweets

Before you go nuclear on your Twitter timeline, wiping it from the face of the internet, you might want to save a copy of your tweets. If you are a user like me then you may have sometimes been using tweets to document events, store cute pet photos, or what have you. All this ephemera will be lost if you don’t backup your archive.

Also, at least one of the services mentioned above (Twitter Archive Eraser) requires your archive before it can do anything, so if you want to use it you will need to download the archive.

To access your archive, visit the Twitter website and open the settings menu. Select the "Your Twitter data" on the left-hand column, enter your password, and scroll down to the bottom where it says "Twitter archive".

If you have the Twitter Android app, there’s an option several levels down under the privacy and settings menu where you can download your data, but I don’t recommend this method because it’s not clear whether this will give you a tweet archive or all the data on your account.

Click the "Request Archive" button to request the archive, and eventually you will get an email from Twitter informing you that you can download your archive in the form of a ZIP file. That ZIP file will contain an index.html file with the text, dates, and other details about your tweets.

Once you have that ZIP file, it’s time to break the cardinal rule of the internet, and make Twitter forger everything you said.

3. Delete your timeline

I would start with the three free services first, and if they don’t work for you then move on to the paid options.

TweetDelete worked great the second time I tried it, and it has worked for just about everyone I know who used it, so try it first. It can delete new tweets when they cross an age threshold, and it can also delete all existing tweets in your account. That second part might take a few minutes, but if you have a hundred thousand tweets like I used to have then TweetDelete might take an hour or more to make them all go to that great recycle bin in the sky.

Some people are reporting that TweetDelete can only delete 3,200 tweets at a time, which is strange because mine all vanished in the space of a few minutes.

Once you’ve deleted your timeline, be sure to set an auto-delete schedule so that your oldest tweets are erased as they age out. I set a threshold of one year, but you might want to set a threshold of 6 months, 90 days, or even 30 days.

It’s up to you.

images by Nico Paix, fung.leo

Washington Post’s New Best-Seller List is Based on Data from Amazon Charts, Nielsen

It looks like Amazon has found a customer for data from Amazon Charts, the weekly best-seller list launched in May 2017.

There’s been no formal announcement from either the Post or Amazon, but the Washington Post is now sporting a new best-seller list. "Introducing The Post’s bestsellers lists," the headline reads, followed by:

The Post compiles its bestsellers lists by combining hard cover, paperback and ebook sales data from Nielsen Bookscan and Amazon.com – including qualified borrows of books read through Amazon’s digital subscription program.

You probably won’t be able to find the blurb; I couldn’t, even after a reader tipped me to the story (thanks, Miss M!). But the new lists are featured prominently on the Books section homepage, where they are the first widget in the sidebar. If you scroll down, you will see that Amazon Charts is cited at the foot of the widget.

Update: The Post PR dept sent me a link to the announcement which was posted this morning. It says that the Post is the first publisher to to use data from Amazon Charts, and that the data is used to inform both the best-seller lists as well as a local Most Read Books D.C. list. Also:

The Post’s lists are backed by new in-house technology, called Bradbury, which speeds the editing process using a streamlined workflow, allowing a single editor to create far more lists in much less time. Bradbury enables The Post to automatically import data from multiple sources and opens up the opportunity to syndicate its lists via an API. Heliograf, The Post’s automated storytelling system, will be used to generate a data-driven weekly synopsis detailing any movement on the list from the week prior, including noting fastest rising titles, authors, new additions and historic performance on the list. Titles in the lists will also link back to the Post review of the book when applicable.

Bradbury is part of Arc Publishing, The Post’s software-as-a-service business.

The Washington Post is owned by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, and had previously used data from Nielsen Bookscan for its best-seller list. That only provided data on print sales, and so it was a less than complete view of the market, while the new lists factor in Amazon’s ebook sales and reads in Kindle Unlimited.

The new lists don’t quite match either Nielsen’s list or Amazon Charts, and instead make it obvious that the data comes from two sources.

Best-seller list such as the New York Times’s list are known for having little to do with actual market sales and are notoriously easy to game. The Washington Post’s lists are probably the first to accurately reflect what people are reading, and not what some New York book editor thinks is worth reading.

It is still not a perfect view of the market, obviously; Amazon only accounts for 75% of the ebook market, which means this new list is still missing a small fraction of the overall book market.

But it is still better than a kick in the teeth.

AAP Reports Publisher Revenues Flat Through September 2017

 

The Association of American Publishers announced on Wednesday that publisher revenues dropped by half a percent in the first three quarters of 2017 compared to the previous year.

Trade revenues fell 1% due to declines in kids/YA (-3.5%) and religious press (-3.3%) categories. Hardback revenues rose a fraction of a percent, to $1.8 billion, while paperback and ebook revenues fell 3% and 5.5%, respectively.

Press Release

For the first three quarters of the year publishers’ revenues (sales to bookstores, wholesalers, direct to consumer, online retailers, etc.) were flat (-0.5%) compared to the same period in 2016. Trade books saw slightly declining revenues (-0.9%) for the year-to-date.

The book publishing industry’s largest category (31.1% of the market) Adult Books – was flat (+0.4%) for the year-to-date. Conversely, both Children’s and Young Adult Books (-3.5%) and Religious Presses (-3.3%) saw declines.

The categories with the most growth were those with small shares of the overall book publishing market -Professional Books (+6.2%) and University Presses (+4.6%).

Total Trade Net Revenue by Category for First Three Quarters of 2017 (in millions)*

Jan. – Sept. 2017 Jan. – Sept. 2016 Percent Change
Adult Fiction/Non-Fiction

$3,507.0

$3,491.8

+0.4%

Children’s/YA

$1,362.6

$1,412.5

-3.5%

Religious Presses

$313.3

$323.9

-3.3%

Total Trade

$5,183.0

$5,228.2

-0.9%

Trade Book Formats

Downloaded audio has been growing by double digits over the past three years, and the first three quarters of 2017 reflect continued growth, with publisher revenue up +26.2%. Notably, with revenues of $244.8 million for Jan. – Sept. 2017, downloaded audio is two months ahead in revenue that in was in 2016 (revenue for Jan. – Nov. 2016 was $244.1 million.)

Publisher revenues for eBooks generally decline, with publisher revenues down -5.5% for the first three quarters of 2017 vs 2016. One exception is Religious Presses, which has seen +9.5% growth in eBooks for the first nine months of 2017 compared to 2016, with revenues climbing from $25.9 million to $28.4 million.

Nine Month Total Trade Net Revenue by Format (in millions)

Jan. – Sept. 2017 Jan. – Sept. 2016 Percent Change
eBooks

$835.9

$884.8

-5.5%

Hardback

$1,799.7

$1,786.7

+0.7%

Paperback & Mass Market

$1,983.8

$2,045.6

-3.0%

Downloaded Audio

$244.8

$194.0

+26.2%

Other (physical audio, board book)

$563.6

$511.1

+10.3%

Education and Scholarly Publishing

The education sector saw mixed results, with +2.0% growth in Higher Education Course Materials and a 3.8% decline in PreK-12 Instructional Materials year-to-date.

Revenues for Professional Books increased by +6.2% and University Presses increased +4.6% in from Jan. – Sept. 2017 compared to the same time in 2016. Two items of note – revenue growth in medical books was up +14.8% year-to-date and University eBooks had a strong September contributing to a +3.0% year-to-date revenue growth.

About StatShot

Publisher net revenue is tracked monthly by the Association of American Publishers (AAP) and includes sales data from about 1,200 publishers. Figures represent publishers’ net revenue for the U.S. (i.e. what publishers sell to bookstores, direct to consumer, online venues, etc.), and are not retailer/consumer sales figures.

image  by ReneS

Updated: Scribd App Update Reveals Return of Unlimited(*) Reading

The embargo on this story is still in effect, but Scribd has let the cat out of the bag.

Scribd just released a new update for its Android app in Google Play, and I hope you are sitting down before reading the changelog:

WHAT’S NEW

  • We’ve done away with credits, which means your subscription gives you access to an unlimited number of the best books, audiobooks, magazines, and more.
  • General bug fixes and stabilization updates.
  • We release new updates every two weeks, which means you’ll get access to the latest bug fixes and updated features as soon as possible.

I don’t know what I can say without violating the embargo, but yes, this is real, and so far as I know there is no catch.

Scribd is going back to the unlimited reading plan that they ended in February 2016. As you can read in the changelog, you will be able to read as many ebooks, magazines, and newspapers as you like.

Please check this post mid-day tomorrow for more details (I haven’t finished writing the post, honestly).

Edit: Here’s something else that leaked. I couldn’t get the Scribd rep to admit it, but there is a catch to the service. Here’s the fine print:

How many books can I read each month?

As many as you can! We strive to provide the most comprehensive catalog to all of our members. We can’t guarantee the availability of any specific title, but our members can always read an unlimited number of books and audiobooks each month. Occasionally, we have to limit the titles that you’re able to access within a specific content library in a 30-day period. This is similar to many unlimited data plans offered by cellular providers, in which data limits may be restricted once a user has consumed a high amount of data in a given month.

So basically this service is unlimited(*) – we’ll just have to wait for users to encounter the limit before we know what it is.

Thanks, Marjorie, for the tip!

O O O

So the news broke last night, and it’s hard to figure out what is worth adding.

For starters, Scribd hasn’t taken new capital, it still has the same owners, and no, the book publisher contracts were not renegotiated.

And no, the catalog hasn’t shrunk; I’m told Scribd now has more romance titles than what they had before they culled the popular titles in 2015 as a cost-cutting measure.

Scribd has over a million titles in its catalog. In comparison, KU has around 1.7 million, and there are around 4 to 5 million titles on the trade ebook market (this doesn’t include comic books or a lot of non-fiction).

The company is making the change because they have far fewer of the subscribers that used to read dozens if not hundreds of ebooks each month. This is essentially a shift in user patterns, and it is one that has made Scribd profitable.

Scribd boasts 700 thousand paying ebook subscribers, and it says it is turning a profit. But even so, its service is a lot smaller than Kindle Unlimited. Scribd has monthly revenues of around $6.3 million (less free months given away to draw in new users) while Amazon pays out over $20 million a month (between the funding pool and the all-star bonuses).

While we do not know the revenue generated by KU, it still pays out at least three times what Scribd pays publishers and authors – and KU also pays most of that money to authors, rather than to publishers.

But let’s be fair: Scribd has succeeded where B&N, Google, Kobo, Oyster, and a dozen other ebook startups have failed.

Scribd is turning a profit in the ebook market.

That makes Scribd the winner of the cage match that is the ebook industry.

That said, I wish we know more about how Scribd will throttle users. They have implied in the announcement blog post that they are going to do so:

Our new unlimited offering will be truly unlimited for the vast vast majority of subscribers, but occasionally some of these most voracious readers will see a temporary reduction of the catalog for a portion of the month.

What this sounds like is Scribd is planning to throttle the 2% to 3% of users who read too much while letting the profitable subscribers proceed unmolested.

Arguably, that is not a true unlimited but actually the kind of faux unlimited plan that cell phone companies offer (which is what Scribd said in the FAQ).

Will the throttling impact you, do you think?

Why Blocking Ads is About Security, and Always Has Been

I have long held the view that blocking ads in a web browser is a basic and standard part of web security. You should be blocking ads for the exact same reasons you should use a firewall, malware scanners, and antivirus:it keeps malicious actors out of your computer.

Writing over at O’Reilly, Mike Loukides explains why:

I’m not whitelisting anyone. I don’t have any fundamental problem with advertising; I wish ads weren’t as intrusive, and I believe advertisers would be better served by advertisements that had more respect for their viewers. But that’s not really why I use an ad blocker.

The real problem with ads is that they’re a vector for malware. It’s relatively easy to fold malware into otherwise-innocent advertisements, and that malware executes even if you don’t click on the ads. I’ve received malware from sites as otherwise legitimate as the BBC, and there are reports of malware from virtually every major online publisher—including sites like Forbes that won’t let you in if you don’t whitelist them. The New York Times, Reuters, MSN, and many others have all spread malware.

And no one takes responsibility for the advertisements or the damage they cause. The publishers just say “hey, we don’t control the ads; that’s the ad placement company.” The advertisers similarly say “hey, our ads come from a marketing firm, and they use some kind of web contractor to do the coding.” And the ad placement companies and marketing firms? All you get from them is the sound of silence.

That is the problem in a nutshell, and Mike is right in that this is a universal problem that cuts across all sites.

This didn’t get a lot of coverage at the time, but late last year a bunch of sites (including BBC and Techcrunch) were serving their mobile visitors a malicious pop-up ad. And in 2016 the Guardian reported that the NYTimes, AOL, NFL, and the BBC all displayed ads that attempted to install ransomware on visitor’s computers.

So basically this is what security-conscious users are thinking right now:

https://twitter.com/csoghoian/status/710137698032476160

The online ad industry is one where the customers (advertisers and malware makers) are paying for the privilege of annoying the audience. That is an inherently unsustainable model, and no amount of fighting against ad blockers will change that simple fact.

Browsery by Barnes & Noble Now in Beta

Barnes & Noble just invited me into that beta-testing group I told you about earlier this week,  and guess what I found?

B&N has a new mobile app with a new browsing experience. It is called Browsery and is described in Google Play as "your ultimate destination for book conversation and discovery. Connect with fellow readers with the tap of a button."

B&N said in the email that Browsery was "a crowd-powered book recommendations platform to help readers find a book or discover something unexpected."

I haven’t been able to do more than look at the app, though; it wouldn’t accept my password (that’s par for the course for beta testing). But I have spent a few minutes in the app, and I’d say it is less of a reading app than a social app. You can ask questions, answer them, and also receive notifications of current activity.

Have you tried it? What do you think?